Page 8 - i1052-5173-30-10 + Annual Report

of Agriculture Statistics Service, 2019). In Cussler, E.L., 1997, Diffusion: Mass Transfer in Fluid National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Adminis-
this regime of rising river and flood levels, Systems: Cambridge, UK, Cambridge Univer- tration, 2019b, CO observed on Mauna Loa:
2
sity Press, 580 p.
planning for the 100-year or other flood Fosu, B., Wang, S., and Pegion, K., 2018, Synoptic https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
(accessed 5 Mar. 2019).
recurrence levels is vain, and non-stationary and climate attributions of the December 2015 ex- Retallack, G.J., 2001, A 300-million-year record of
flood prediction is needed (Vogel et al., treme flooding in Missouri, USA: Water, v. 10, atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil plant cuti-
2011). At Hannibal, Missouri, annual aver- p. 350, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040350. cles: Nature, v. 411, p. 287–290, https://doi.org/
10.1038/35077041.
age levels of the river can be expected to rise Franks, P.J., and Beerling, D.J., 2009, Maximum leaf Retallack, G.J., 2009, Greenhouse crises of the past
conductance driven by CO effects on stomatal
2 cm per year for the foreseeable future (Fig. size and density over geologic time: Proceedings 300 million years: Geological Society of America
2
1A), even if climate does not finally become of the National Academy of Sciences of the United Bulletin, v. 121, p. 1441–1455, https://doi.org/
significantly more humid, as expected with States of America, v. 106, p. 10,343–10,347, https:// 10.1130/B26341.1.
doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0904209106.
rise in atmospheric temperature (Retallack Franks, P.J., Royer, D.L., Beerling, D.J., Van de Retallack, G.J., and Conde, G.D., 2020, Deep time
perspective on rising atmospheric CO : Global
and Conde, 2020). Declining transpiration as Water, P.K., Cantrill, D.J., Barbour, M.M., and and Planetary Change, v. 189, 103177, https://doi
2
a direct response to rising atmospheric CO Berry, J.A., 2014, New constraints on atmo- .org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103177.
2
is an underappreciated factor in flood pre- spheric CO concentration for the Phanerozoic: Royer, D.L., Berner, R.A., and Beerling, D.J., 2001,
2
diction (Betts et al., 2007). Geophysical Research Letters, v. 41, p. 4685– Phanerozoic atmospheric CO change: Evaluating
2
4694, https://doi .org/10.1002/2014GL060457. geochemical and paleobiological approaches:
Kwok, R., 2018, Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, Earth-Science Reviews, v. 54, p. 349–392, https://
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS and multiyear ice coverage: Losses and coupled doi.org/10.1016/S0012-8252(00)00042-8.
We thank Greg Bothun, Dan Gavin, and Pat variability (1958–2018): Environmental Research Sohl, T., Reker, R., Bouchard, M., Sayler, K., Dorn-
Bartlein for stimulating discussions. Jonathan Wynn, Letters, v. 13, 105005, https://doi.org/ 10.1088/ bierer, K., Wika, S., Qunzer, R., and Friesz, A.,
Joshua Roering, and Edward Davis proffered mathe- 1748-9326/aae3ec. 2016, Modeled historical land use and land cover
matical advice. Chrissie Prychid and Nicola Kuhn Lammertsma, E.I., de Boer, H.J., Dekker, S.C., for the conterminous United States: Journal of
provided scanning electron microscopy images of Dilcher, D.L., Lotter, A.F., and Wagner-Cremer, Land Use Science, v. 11, p. 476–499, https://doi .org/
Ginkgo leaves of the Kew Herbarium picked in 1754 F., 2011, Global CO rise leads to reduced maxi- 10.1080/1747423X.2016.1147619.
2
in Japan. Arne Arneberg provided leaf fragments mum stomatal conductance in Florida vegetation: Steinthorsdottir, M., Woodward, F.I., Surlyk, F., and
from the Swedish Natural History Museum picked in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences McElwain, J.C., 2012, Deep-time evidence of a
1829 from “Hortus Botanicus Augustinus,” Amster- of the United States of America, v. 108, p. 4035- link between elevated CO concentrations and per-
2
dam. Hugo de Boer provided raw data on oak stoma- 4040, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100371108. turbations in the hydrological cycle via drop in
tal index from Florida published by Lammertsma et Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Bar- plant transpiration: Geology, v. 40, p. 815–818,
al. (2011). Sarena Campbell, John Donovan, and Julie nola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, https://doi.org/10.1130/G33334.1.
Chouinard aided with scanning electron microscopy. J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., and Stocker, T.F., Sugano, S.S., Shimada, T., Imai, Y., Okawa, K.,
2008, High-resolution carbon dioxide concentra- Tamai, A., Mori, M., and Hara-Nishimura, I.,
tion record 650,000–800,000 years before present: 2010, Stomagen positively regulates stomatal den-
REFERENCES CITED Nature, v. 453, p. 379–382, https://doi.org/10.1038/ sity in Arabidopsis: Nature, v. 463, p. 241–244,
Alton, P., Fisher, R., Los, S., and Williams, M., 2009, nature06949. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08682.
Simulations of global evapotranspiration using Manos, P.S., Doyle, J.J., and Nixon, K.C., 1999, Phy- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2019, Mississippi
semiempirical and mechanistic schemes of plant logeny, biogeography, and processes of molecular River at Hannibal, Missouri, http://rivergages
hydrology: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, v. 23, differentiation in Quercus subgenus Quercus .mvr.usace.army.mil (accessed 2 Apr. 2019).
GB4023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003540. (Fagaceae): Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolu- U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricul-
Andersen, O., Crow, T.R., and Leitz, S.M., 1996, tion, v. 12, p. 333–349, https://doi.org/ 10.1006/ tural Statistics Service, 2019, https://www.nass
Transformation of a landscape in the upper mid- mpev.1999.0614. .usda.gov/Publications/Ag_Statistics/2017/
west, USA: The history of the lower St. Croix McElwain, J.C., and Steinthorsdottir, M., 2017, Paleo- Chapter09.pdf (accessed 4 Apr. 2019).
River valley, 1830 to present: Landscape and Ur- ecology, ploidy, paleoatmospheric composition, Vogel, R.M., Yaindl, C., and Walter, M., 2011, Non-
ban Planning, v. 35, p. 247–267, https://doi.org/ and developmental biology: A review of the multi- stationarity: Flood magnification and recurrence
10.1016/S0169-2046(96)00304-0. ple uses of fossil stomata: Plant Physiology, v. 174, reduction factors in the United States: Journal of
Barclay, R.S., and Wing, S.L., 2016, Improving the p. 650–664, https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.17.00204. the American Water Resources Association,
Ginkgo CO barometer: Implications for the early Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I.R., Powell, F.E., v. 47, p. 464–474, https://doi.org/10.1111/ j.1752
-1688.2011.00541.x.
2
Cenozoic atmosphere: Earth and Planetary Sci- Geronimo, R.C., Bielecki, C.R., Counsell, C.W.W., Wallace, J.M., Held, I.M., Thompson, D.W., Tren-
ence Letters, v. 439, p. 158–171, https://doi.org/ Dietrich, B.S., Johnston, E.T., Louis, L.V., Lucas, berth, K.E., and Walsh, J.E., 2014, Global warm-
M.P., McKenzie, M.M., Shea, A.G., Tseng, H.,
10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.012. ing and winter weather: Science, v. 343, p. 729–
Betts, R.A., Boucher, O., Collins, M., Cox, P.M., Fal- Giambelluca, T.W., Leon, L.R., Hawkins, E., and 730, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.343.6172.729.
Trauernicht, C., 2017, Global risk of deadly heat:
loon, P.D., Gedney, N., Hemming, D.L., Hunting- Nature Climate Change, v. 7, p. 501–506, https:// Wolfram Alpha, 2019, Computational intelligence
ford, C., Jones, C.D., Sexton, D.M.H., and Webb, doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322. website: https://www.wolframalpha.com (accessed
M.J., 2007, Projected increase in continental run- Morton, L.W., Hobbs, J., Arbuckle, J.G., and Loy, 21 Aug. 2019).
off due to plant responses to increasing carbon di- A., 2015, Upper Midwest climate variations: Woodward, F.I., 1987, Stomatal numbers are sensi-
oxide: Nature, v. 448, p. 1037–1041, https://doi .org/ Farmer responses to excess water risks: Journal tive to increases in CO from pre-industrial lev-
2
10.1038/nature06045. of Environmental Quality, v. 44, p. 810–822, els: Nature, v. 327, p. 617–618, https://doi.org/
Chater, C., Peng, K., Movahedi, M., Dunn, J.A., https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2014.08.0352. 10.1038/327617a0.
Walker, H.J., Liang, Y.K., McLachlan, D.H., Mu, Q., Zhao, M., and Running, S.W., 2013, MODIS Yan, X.H., Boyer, T., Trenberth, K., Karl, T.R., Xie,
Casson, S., Isner, J.C., Wilson, I., and Neill, S.J., global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) product: S.-P., Nieves, V., Tung, K.-K., and Roemmich, D.,
2015, Elevated CO -induced responses in sto- NASA document https://modis-land.gsfc.nasa.gov/ 2016, The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or
2
mata require ABA and ABA signaling: Current pdf/MOD16ATBD.pdf (accessed 26 Aug. 2019). redistribution?: Earth’s Future, v. 4, p. 472–482,
Biology, v. 25, p. 2709–2716, https://doi.org/ National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Adminis- https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000417.
10.1016/ j.cub.2015.09.013. tration, 2019a, Climatic data online for Hannibal
Clausen, M., 1979, Forests in the long sweep of water works (USC00233601) and St Charles Manuscript received 8 nov. 2019
American history: Science, v. 204, p. 1168–1174, (USC00237397), Missouri: https://www.noaa.gov revised Manuscript received 15 apr. 2020
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.204.4398.1168. (accessed 4 Apr. 2019). Manuscript accepted 20 July 2020
8 GSA Today | October 2020