Is the coast toast? Exploring Cascadia earthquake probabilities

Seth Stein¹*, Leah Salditch², Edward Brooks¹, Bruce Spencer³, Michael Campbell²

1 Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208, USA
2 Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208, USA
3 Dept. of Statistics, Northwestern University and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208, USA

The earthquake hazard in the Pacific Northwest due to subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath North America
(Fig. 1A) is drawing much media attention. A The New Yorker article (Schulz, 2015) begins, “An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.” The article quotes a FEMA official saying “everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” CBS stated, “Northwest in fear of massive earthquake, tsunami.” NPR reported “Sleeping giant overdue.” Stories include statements like, “In the next 50 years, there is a 1-in-10 chance a ‘really big one’ will erupt,” or, “the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake in the next fifty years are roughly one in three.”

Manuscript received 3 July 2017. Revised manuscript received 29 July 2017. Manuscript accepted 9 Aug. 2017. Posted online 14 Sept. 2017.

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